Kasikorn Research Center has maintained its Thai GDP growth forecast for the year at 2%. According to Nattaporn Triratsirikul, Deputy Managing Director of the center, the end of the US-Iran conflict will not lead to a rapid decrease in global energy prices.

She noted in a Thai-language briefing that the Thai economy likely hit its lowest point in the second quarter of 2026 and will gradually recover through the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter.

What this means for you:

• Flight and travel costs: With global oil prices remaining sticky, airlines are unlikely to drop fuel surcharges immediately. Expect long-haul flights to and from Thailand to remain relatively expensive in the near term.
• Local inflation: Sustained high energy costs will continue to affect the price of goods, transport, and utilities in Thailand.
• Business planning: Expats running businesses in Thailand should plan for a slow, gradual economic recovery rather than an immediate post-war boom.

Tourism stocks see a boost

Despite the cautious outlook on fuel, the broader Thai market is reacting positively to the geopolitical stability.

Globlex Securities anticipates a recovery in Thai stocks following the ceasefire. The firm projects the index could reach 1,650 points, highlighting the tourism sector as a standout performer that stands to benefit most from the stabilized international climate.